STS - conferences, IST2012

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Scenarios for implementing an economic sustainable transition in Paris-Region
Dominique Sellier

Last modified: 2012-03-22


Several regional political exercises established a vision 2030 or 2050 regarding the reduction of greenhouse gases, or sustainable regional planning. The paper presents the results of a forecasting survey which proposes various scenarios of transition to concretize these visions of « post-carbon territories » in various key sectors: food, energy, mobility, building renovation.


To reach an energy and carbon positivity, an autonomy in resources at the regional scale, or accessibility with the green local amenities supposes to identify the innovative pilot projects connected with the territories of experimentation.


The survey consists in defining the first steps towards a positive transition of the regional economy, so called positive economy.  This concept applies to generate an economic growth that restores ecological capital, i.e. the capacity of the environment to supply the economy with resources (energy, raw materials) and services (waste recycling, water treatment, etc.) Positive Economy represents for example reaching factor 4 carbon emissions before 2030, to obtain more than 50 % of local and renewable energy for thermal and electrical use. By example, a yearly rate of 3% thermal refurbishment of the individual housing is needed to achieve the whole renovation of the residential and tertiary real estate between 2010 and 2050.


For each selected innovative selected pilot project, it is suggested a synthesis of the principal social, economic and environmental benefits. This supposes to analyze the key success factors, the barriers and leverage effects for each project.


Finally the paper presents the three main scenario of transition to the horizons 2015, 2020 and 2030, with a synthesis in the form of a strategic planning for the Paris-Region, describing the means of implementation and accompaniment.